You can’t predict the future.
A fellow named Alan Kay somewhat famously quipped that the “best way to predict the future is to invent it.” (Can you tell he built computer software?)
That kind of works in the virtual world, maybe, but even in the world of machines it’s easier said than done.
You can certainly forge ahead of others into the future, but do you know what you’ll find there? How others might react to their new present? Why the past worked out quite how it will? You might blaze a particular trail, but at the very least you’ll find you aren’t the only one in the forest.
Another software inventor approaches the future more modestly: “Leadership is less about aiming correctly at the start and more about the persistence to make constant course corrections.”
You might find the best plans assume very little about the future itself. They require very little prediction. It may be a fun game to guess at what is coming next, and it’s certainly wise to trace out where a trend is likely to take you, but “past performance does not guarantee future results” (as they say).
People are probably the most perplexing part of any prognostication. But plan for the unpredictable; don’t avoid it.
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